India to topple Japan as world's 3rd-largest economy

India might become the world's third largest economy in 2011 by overtaking Japan in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) measured according to the domestic purchasing power of the rupee, otherwise called purchasing power parity.

India is now the fourth-largest economy behind the US, China and Japan. Numbers from 2010 show that the Japanese economy was worth $4.31 trillion, with India snapping at its heels at $4.06 trillion. But after March's devastating tsunami and earthquakes, Japan's economy is widely expected to contract while India's economy will grow between 7% and 8% this fiscal. "India should overtake Japan in 2011 to become the third-largest economy in the world at purchasing power parity," said Sunil Sinha, head of research and senior economist at Crisil.

IMF forecasts show India and Japan neck-to-neck in 2011, but the disaster in Japan has brought the event forward. "Were it not for the earthquake and tsunami, India would have overtaken Japan in around 2013-14," said Sinha.

The purchasing power parity (PPP) method measures the size of an economy by levelling price differences between countries that occur in the process of conversion to a single currency.

Under this method, a dollar should be able to buy the same amount of goods anywhere in the world and exchange rates should adjust accordingly.

The Economist's Big Mac Index, which takes the price of a Big Mac burger across 120 countries to calculate the 'real' price of its currency, is a crude way to measure PPP. India was included in the index recently. It showed that the Indian rupee was undervalued by 53% against the US dollar in August.

Earlier, a report by consultant PwC suggested that the Indian economy would surpass the Japanese economy in 2012. The IMF expects the Japanese economy to contract 0.7% this year while India is expected to grow 8.2%. A bigger economy could also give the government additional clout and bargaining power overseas.

"A bigger economy would also mean more clout in international forums," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at ratings firm Care.

Rich getting Richer,Poor getting Poorer and the middle classe? - disappearing

How is the middle class is faltering in the US - from howtheworldworks :

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that big American consumer product companies are beginning to split their product offerings between retail lines aimed either at the low end or the high end.


For generations, Procter & Gamble Co.'s growth strategy was focused on developing household staples for the vast American middle class.

Now, P&G executives say many of its former middle-market shoppers are trading down to lower-priced goods -- widening the pools of have and have-not consumers at the expense of the middle....

A wide swath of American companies is convinced that the consumer market is bifurcating into high and low ends and eroding in the middle. They have begun to alter the way they research, develop and market their products.

Food giant H.J. Heinz Co., for example, is developing more products at lower price ranges. Luxury retailer Saks Inc. is bolstering its high-end apparel and accessories because its wealthiest customers -- not those drawn to entry-level items -- are driving the chain's growth.


But here's the kicker:


To monitor the evolving American consumer market, P&G executives study the Gini index, a widely accepted measure of income inequality that ranges from zero, when everyone earns the same amount, to one, when all income goes to only one person. In 2009, the most recent calculation available, the Gini coefficient totaled 0.468, a 20 percent rise in income disparity over the past 40 years, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

"We now have a Gini index similar to the Philippines and Mexico -- you'd never have imagined that," says Phyllis Jackson, P&G's vice president of consumer market knowledge for North America. "I don't think we've typically thought about America as a country with big income gaps to this extent."

The new numbers from the Census Bureau peg 2010's Gini coefficient at 0.469, which, statistically speaking, doesn't represent a significant change in income inequality as compared to 2009. However, the Bureau notes, "changes in shares of aggregate household income by quintiles showed a slight shift to more inequality." So the basic trend is still depressingly in place.

It's not hard to understand what is happening here. The middle class, squeezed by globalization and advances in technology, is sinking backward, while the rich benefit disproportionately from gains in trade and excessively accommodative tax policy.


My Take: With Oil Price and Interest Rates hikes happening every month, it is soon going to be Indians turn.

Reverse Colonialism - Turn of the tide in globalization?

What a twist of fate and churn in the globalization's history.. Snippets from an interesting article by Charles Payne..

Europe's drama has taken center stage as we wait for the next round of fireworks from the Fed, the Super Committee, White House (big refinance deal on drawing board) and the update on jobs data (shouldn't be hard to be zero). I find it amazing that markets settled down as rumors of a China bailout persisted. One Chinese official called it absurd since it would mean a country with per capita income of $4,000 is bailing out nations with per capita incomes of $40,000.

It goes to show just what can be done when people buckled down for decades and do with less, save half the money they make even when it's pennies, and wait until they have trillions in the bank to make their move. It also goes to show just what can be done when people feel entitled and spend like crazy for decades because they would never do with less or save any money they make or receive even when it's billions, so they gorge until there's nothing and then make their move. These moves seem to be colliding. As those decadent European nations that squandered greatness and fortunes are now sniffing around up and coming nations are being looked to for bailouts.


But, there is also a lesson about hunger. Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal have glorious histories of global domination, but as their dominance faded they lived a lie through political systems designed to make everyone feel a sense of power when in fact all the real power of free markets, entrepreneurship, and ambition was being snuffed out. Who's going to make up the collision that bails America out twenty years from now? Mexico, Turkey, Singapore, and Indonesia are on the right track to be our BRICS rescue team by then. The headlines will read: "MITS Bailout USA!"