Globalization ka Side Effects II

Just like the report "Globalization ka Side Effects", which talked about the death of one million work-aged Russians died due to the economic shock of mass privatisation policies, it is now reported that the phenomena is going to happen in India too.

Due to globalisation and a stressful working environment hypertension threatens to wallop the work force in India, according to a survey.

The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham) and the PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) in a joint report said 65 million people were affected by hypertension in 2008 and that in the years ahead it was likely to see a quantum leap of over 135 million to touch a figure of 200 million by 2015.

Threat to well-being

The desperation to protect one’s livelihood in this era of changing economy, with little medical facilities to cope with the situation, was posing a major threat to the well-being of the working force, maintained Assocham president Sajjan Jindal.

Productive years

India is losing its potentially productive years due to increasing heart diseases, strokes and diabetes in the age group of 35-60, one of the highest in the world, according to the report.

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How does a Trillion dollar look like?

The US Bail out is said to cost around a Trillion dollars. Have you wondered how much would a Trillion Dollar look like? someone has done an illustration. Here is a visualization of how a Trillion Dollar would look like :

Here is a Hundred Dollar Note :



This is Ten Thousand Dollars :


This is a Million Dollars:


This is One Hundred Million Dollars:




This is one Billion Dollars :





This is One Trillion :


Visualized by : http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

China is the G-2 now

China is leveraging the US Financial Crisis to the fullest as it has leapfrogged in two of the Key Industrial Segments. The Newsweek, last week, explored in a cover story, whether Shangai is the New Detroit. This week, Rana Foroohar wonders whether Shangai is also the Next Wall Street. China has become the biggest Auto Market and they are also pressing ahead with important financial reforms including launching their own version of NASDAQ and making its currency more convertible. 

A user commenting on the article, had  summed it up : China is G-2.

Excerpts from the articles :

1. Shanghai is the new Detroit

American tastes dominated the world's automotive market for a century, but all that's changing now. Today it's the increasingly well-to-do Chinese car-buyer that industry wants to woo and win, thanks to this incredible fact—China has, over the last three months running, surpassed the U.S. in terms of volume sales of automobiles.

The future of auto design was on display last week at the Shanghai Auto Show, where, in 30 football fields worth of space, international and domestic carmakers vied for the attention of Chinese consumers. The timing of the biennial event, China's oldest international auto show, was fortuitous. No one expected the Middle Kingdom to nab first place in the global auto market from America for at least another decade, but the financial crisis has had a sharp dampening effect on U.S. sales. The Chinese, meanwhile, spurred on by their government's enormous stimulus package, have kept spending. Beijing's 2009 auto sales target is 10 million units, an increase of 10 percent from 2008, and a figure that would cement its position, with an estimated 1 million more unit sales than the U.S. "No one expected China to emerge as the leading volume market this fast," says William Russo, a Beijing-based business consultant who specializes in the automotive sector. "This will give China a huge say in setting the standards and architecture for the entire industry.

If Beijing gets its way, the future will be small, green and—of course—made in China. The shock of the global financial crisis, and the resulting need to stimulate the auto sector has persuaded Beijing to dig deep into government coffers with more than $733 million to promote the rural sales of small cars and trucks (which domestic makers specialize in) and $220 million to fund and upgrade new green automotive technologies that many consider to be the wave of the future for the industry. Ultimately, Chinese planners want to create a new Detroit—a leaner, meaner, cleaner global automotive hub.

2. Shangai is the new Wall Street.

Shanghai is the new Detroit. Now, I'm beginning to wonder if it may soon be the new Wall Street. As I've written and blogged in the past, the fact that the world's top three banks by market capitalization are now Chinese isn't as big a deal as it might seem -- they are still local, commercial players, not global investment banks a la Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs.

Despite the market downturn, the Chinese are launching their own version of NASDAQ later this month, in order to help fund small and mid sized businesses that aren't benefiting as much from the massive stimulus package (yet still create the majority of jobs). They are also moving ahead with developing more complex securities (though not those crazy credit default swaps that tanked markets over here), and making their currency more convertible.

The Chinese could have used the financial crisis as a reason to turn their back on capital market reform -- instead, they are pushing ahead with it, and will likely gain global financial market share as a result. Wen Jiabao recently said as much when he told the Chinese that this is a moment for "more, not less" reform. It's such a cliché, but I'm reminded yet again of the fact that the Chinese use the same character to write "danger" and "opportunity."

The Indian Realty

This is a short story passed around through emails between Indian IT people. I think Indian Social Media is starting to get interesting. People are now starting to wonder about who is the real beneficiary of the IT boom in India.

ONE BEDROOM APARTMENT... .....

WRITTEN BY AN INDIAN SOFTWARE ENGINEER...

 A Bitter Reality

As the dream of most parents I had acquired a degree in
Software Engineering and joined a company based in USA, the
land of braves and opportunity. When I arrived in the USA , it
was as if a dream had come true.


Here at last I was in the place where I want to be. I decided I
would be staying in this country for about Five years in which
time I would have earned enough money to settle down in India .

My father was a government employee and after his retirement,
the only asset he could acquire was a decent one bedroom apt.


I wanted to do some thing more than him. I started fe el ing
homesick and lon el y as the time passed. I used to call home and
speak to my parents every week using cheap international phone
cards. Two years passed, two years of fast food at McDonald's and
pizzas  and 2 years watching the foreign exchange
rate getting happy whenever the Rupee value went down.

Finally I decided to get married. Told my parents that I have
only 10 days of holidays and everything must be done within
these 10 days. I got my ticket booked in the cheapest flight.
Was jubilant and was actually enjoying hopping for gifts for
all my friends back home. If I miss anyone then there will be
talks. After reaching home I spent home one week going through
all the photographs of girls and as the time was getting
shorter I was forced to s el ect one candidate.


In-laws told me, to my surprise, that I would have to get
married in 2-3 days, as I will not get anymore holidays. After
the marriage, it was time to return to USA , after giving some
money to my parents and t el ling the neighbors to look after
them, we returned to USA .


My wife enjoyed this country for about two months and then she
started fe el ing lon el y. The frequency of calling India
increased to twice in a week sometimes 3 times a week. Our
savings started diminishing.



After two more years we started to
have kids. Two lov el y kids, a boy and a girl, were gifted to us
by the almighty. Every time I spoke to my parents, they asked
me to come to India so that they can see their grand-children.


Every year I decide to go to India ... But part work part
monetary conditions prevented it. Years went by and visiting
India was a distant dream. Then suddenly one day I got a
message that my parents were seriously sick. I tried but I
couldn't get any holidays and thus could not go to India ... The
next message I got was my parents had passed away and as there
was no one to do the last rights the society members had done
whatever they could. I was depressed. My parents had passed
away without seeing their grand children.


After couple more years passed away, much to my children's
dislike and my wife's joy we returned to India to settle down.
I started to look for a suitable property, but to my dismay my
savings were short and the property prices had gone up during
all these years. I had to return to the USA ...


My wife refused to come back with me and my children refused to
stay in India ... My 2 children and I returned to USA after
promising my wife I would be back for good after two years.

Time passed by, my daughter decided to get married to an
American and my son was happy living in USA ... I decided that
had enough and wound-up every thing and returned to India ... I
had just enough money to buy a decent 02 bedroom APT in a
w el l-dev el oped locality.


Now I am 60 years old and the only time I go out of the APT is
for the routine visit to the nearby temple. My faithful wife
has also left me and gone to the holy abode.

Sometimes



I wondered was it worth all this?



My father, even after staying in India ,



Had a house to his name and I too have
the same nothing more.

I lost my parents and children for just ONE EXTRA BEDROOM.

Looking out from the window I see a lot of children dancing.
This damned cable TV has spoiled our new generation and these
children are losing their values and culture because of it. I
get occasional cards from my children asking I am alright. W el l
at least they remember me.


Now perhaps after I die it will be the neighbors again who will
be performing my last rights, God Bless them.



But the question
still
remains 'was all this worth it?'

I am still searching for an answer...... .......... ..!!!



START THINKING



IS IT JUST FOR ONE EXTRA BEDROOM???



LIFE IS BEYOND THIS .....DON'T JUST LEAVE YOUR LIFE ........

START LIVING IT ........

LIVE IT AS YOU WANT IT TO BE ........

All Slumdogs are not millionaires

India's booming economy has helped marginalise the growing number of impoverished city dwellers while lifting millions out of poverty, a government report by Professor Amitabh Kundu, the chief coordinator of the "India Urban Poverty Report 2009", which was released in New Delhi.

"When you're watching the process of development, where you stand is very important -- whether you see the speed of the engine or you get overwhelmed by the smoke".

The urban poor accounted for 25.7 percent of the country's total urban population in 2004-5 compared with 49.01 percent in 1973-74, said the report which defines urban poor as anyone living on less than 20 rupees ($.41) a day. However, the rate of overall decline in poverty slowed from 0.82 percentage points per year from 1973-74 to 1983-84, to 0.61 percentage points from 1993-94 to 2004-05, the report said, revealing the flip-side of the country's economic success. India's economy grew at around 9 percent in each of the past three years. "Certain aspects of economic development and the changes associated strongly with the process of urbanisation in India have created a backwash effect for the poorer sections of the urban community," the report said. The "backwash" is also blamed on the decline or relocation of traditional industries such as textiles and steel. "The urban workers are increasingly being pushed into the informal sector," the report said.

Mass slum clearances have driven workers, such as those in domestic service, away from their place of work and pushed many into crime, the report said. "When the urban poor are pushed away from the place of his/her livelihood, the result is complete loss of livelihood. As a result, many of the poor are pushed into crime."

Source : Boom marginalises India's urban poor-report

Financial Storm to hit India - One crore job loss

Exports from India are expected to plummet by more than fifth as the global slowdown slashes demand for Indian goods. Commerce Secretary G.K. Pillai indicated that overseas sales could decline to $11.5 billion from $14.7 billion a year ago.

Exports in the developing economies began to slide after the global financial crisis froze credit markets and sent developed economies towards recessions. The sector is witness more slowdown outstripping previous months slide which is a stark evidence of the Asia's third-largest economy becoming the victim of recession.

"The government should immediately come up with more relief measures for exporters. Otherwise the export sector will be in a very bad shape," said A. Sakthivel, President of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations.

Dip in India's export by 22 percent in January along with the ongoing financial crunch is likely to take away one crore jobs in labor-intensive industries in the current fiscal ending March, forecasts Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO).

Reeling under the downturn, industries like textiles, garments, chemicals and gems and jewellery had cut production by 10-50 percent. As per a recent survey by Commerce Ministry, over one lakh people have already lost jobs upto January 15.

"Textile garments and handicraft sectors were the worse affected. Together they are set to lose more than 4 million jobs by April 2009. Other sectors that could lose anywhere between 5 and 10 lakh jobs each include gems and jewellery, chemicals and engineering and auto component sectors," Ajai Sahai, Director General of FIEO told The Economic Times.

Predictions from Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer

Great Depression, World War II and Global Financial Crisis

Geopolitical risks would also become more severe if a U-shaped global recession were to mutate — because of mistaken policy responses — into an L-shaped stag-deflation (a deadly combination of economic stagnation, recession and deflation). After all, the stock market crash of 1929 turned into a Great Depression because of poor monetary, banking and fiscal responses. When the Depression became global, trade wars — starting with the Smoot-Hawley tariff — further contracted global exports and imports, capital controls became pervasive and defaults in emerging markets became the norm. Some similar risks are emerging today as countries become more protectionist and impose capital controls. Ecuador already defaulted on its foreign debt and others are teetering on the verge of a sovereign debt crisis. In the 1930s, the botched policy response and severe depression led to the rise of nationalistic, militaristic and aggressive regimes in Italy, Germany, Spain, Japan to name a few. The final result was World War II.

Today, the lessons of the Great Depression have hopefully been learned and a destabilizing L-shaped global stag-deflationary slump should be avoided. But monetary easing is weak in some regions and is less effective in the presence of insolvency/credit problems. Fiscal stimulus is constrained in many countries by previous high deficits and debts and cleaning up and bailing out the financial system is constrained by the “too-big-to-save” banks (i.e. losses in large, internationally active banks are much larger than the resources of small open economies to rescue them). And widespread and disorderly defaults by households, firms and financial institutions may follow a severe debt deflation.

Capitalism is not Dead

This is not a final crisis of capitalism and market economies. To paraphrase Churchill, market oriented capitalism is the worst economic system apart from the alternative. But the specific brand of Anglo-Saxon, laissez faire, wild-west, free market fundamentalism without prudential supervision and regulation of financial systems has been debunked. Central banks that are usually the lenders of last resort have become the lenders of first and only resort. And the new Keynesian Finance ministries have become the spenders of first and only resort, as private demand – consumption, residential investment, capex spending – is plunging

MNCs - No Longer Powerful

Globally, today’s leading multinational institutions — the UN Security Council, the IMF, the World Bank, etc — no longer reflect the true balance of political and economic power in the world

Global Financial Crisis - white Swan

The global financial crisis — missed by most analysts — shows that most forecasters are poor at pricing in economic/financial risks, let alone geopolitical ones. In normal times, markets are poor at pricing low probability, fat tail risks (black swan events), but the recent global financial crisis was a white swan event, as it followed a gradual build-up of predictable financial vulnerabilities that were ignored by most. But when the proverbial financial or geopolitical shocks hit,
the market over-reaction can become severe, as fear follows greed and markets tend to react in extremely risk-averse ways, replacing the denial and indulgence of good times with the extreme risk-aversion of bad times.


Protectionism - Reverse Globalization

Protectionist pressure will become more severe if the global economic slump is more protracted and deep. Certainly Doha is dead as multi-lateral trade liberalisation is impossible. Protectionist tariff actions have already started to emerge in places such as Russia and India and they may spread further. Trade-distorting subsidies are more likely than tariffs (see the rescue of Big Auto in the US). Currency tensions — for example between the U.S. and China — could escalate into trade wars. One also needs to worry about financial protectionism as a backlash against sovereign wealth funds and even FDI that may take place

What happens to BRIC countries?

This is the first globally synchronized recession and there are very few places to hide as the forces of recoupling shatter the myth of decoupling: first markets and then real economies have become almost perfectly correlated. Among the BRICs, Brazil and India are less affected than Russia and China, but even Brazil will suffer from falling commodity prices, shrinking export markets and an increase in investors’ risk aversion; thus growth may be barely positive.

India depends less than China on global trade flows, but it depends more on capital flows to finance a large current account deficit, and its’ banking system financed a credit boom with foreign liquidity that is now drying up.

A hard landing in Russia is unavoidable with growth being sharply negative (-3 percent or worse) if oil prices average $40 a barrel this year. For a country like China that needs a growth rate close to 10 percent to move 10 million poor rural farmers every year to the modern urban industrial sector, a drop to 5 percent growth or below (a most likely outcome) is effectively a hard landing. Since the legitimacy of the Communist Party depends on achieving high growth, I believe the hard landing that China will experience this year will have political consequences. Even when growth was 10 percent plus China had over 70,000 mass protests every year according to official records; with growth in the hard landing territory (actually likely negative in Q4 of 2008 and through the middle of 2009) protests will increase, especially as millions of migrant workers return to cities after the Chinese New Year to find that there are no jobs, and as millions of university graduate discover a challenging job market. So while the risk of a political revolution is limited, the more severe the hard landing, the more likely is the chance that the anger of the masses is converted towards the domestic authorities, rather than being channeled in a nationalistic and anti-foreign direction.


Urbanization of India and China - Next Drivers for Global Growth

The return to potential growth will imply rapidly rising demand from urbanizing and industrializing China, India and other emerging markets.